An Alternative Reason Behind the Financial Unrest
Posted on | August 5, 2011 | No Comments
May the current financial unrest in part be due to the realization that oil is going to be short and that the only way to make up for this shortage will be to develop and implement renewable fuels on a large scale?
Even if this is not yet the official explanation of the development in the global financial markets, this is likely to become an increasing factor behind future re-evaluations in stock markets and other financial markets.
When investors make these calculations they are bound to realize that the global community is far behind in developing the necessary volumes of renewable energy.
We need strategies, plans, and national and international change programs in order to cope with the situation that is now evolving.
Tags: change management > Global Energy Transformation > Mats R Larsson > renewable energy
The Most Important Financial Issue to Worry About
Posted on | August 1, 2011 | No Comments
The global economy faces a number of issues that people in the financial markets worry about right now. One is the US debt ceiling and the development of the financial situation in this country. Another issue, or a number of them, are the financial situations in EU countries like Greece and Ireland.
Few people even mention the impact that the global peak in oil production will have on the global economy. Once the financial markets realize that we face a permanent decline in the oil supply they will start to factor in this into their growth projections for the future. This situation will be very different from the oil crises of the 1970′s and 1980′s.
In those days the west could negotiate with OPEC to persuade the oil producers to once more increase production and promise to buy the increased volumes at a higher prices. In the years to come we cannot persuade OPEC or any other producer to increase production. The only way to get rid of the problem will be to increase the volumes of renewable fuels and also increase our ability to use increasing volumes for transportation by purchasing more biofuel and electric cars and trucks.
This is something we cannot get away from, however much we hate to face the most important issue related to financial development and economic growth at present.
In order to develop large new production resources for renewable fuels, and large fleets of renewable fuel vehicles we need large scale programs for energy systems transformation.
Global Energy Transformation is not an option, but a necessity!
Tags: GET Institute > Global Energy Transformation > large scale energy systems transformation > Mats R Larsson > renewable fuels
The Big Difference
Posted on | July 14, 2011 | No Comments
There is a big difference between the oil crisis that will arise as a consequence of Peak Oil and the crises of the seventies and eighties. Back then everybody knew that we only had to get an agreement with OPEC in order for them to turn the production on a full capacity. The oil crisis that will follow Peak Oil will be due to the inability of oil producers to increase production. The only way we can get back to increasing volumes of energy for transportation, and fuel the global transportation systems for goods and people, will be to develop renewable energy sources.
Investors in global markets will realize this, and they will evaluate the prospects for future economic growth accordingly. Normally, it takes decades to develop and introduce new technologies on a large scale, and investors will realize this, and this will likely lead to a financial crisis.
The only way to reduce the impact of such a crisis will be to develop large scale programs for the introduction of renewable fuels and technology and systems that reduce our dependence on oil for transportation. If we do this in a way that will convince investors there is a possibility that the financial crisis will only be temporary. In the absence of large scale efforts to reduce our dependence on oil, investors will see a very bleak future, and the value of stock markets and currencies is likely to plummet.
Governments need to act decisively in order to reduce the risk of this type of development.
Tags: Bill Gates > Global Energy Transformation > governments > strategies for large scale energy transformation
Systems Platform Projects
Posted on | July 8, 2011 | No Comments
To transform energy systems on a large scale we need national and international systems platforms that make it easy for users of electric and biofuel vehicles to use them anywhere they want to go. We are definitely not there yet.
I’m currently working on putting together project teams that aim at establishing such platforms in Sweden.
We have found a great interest among leading players in the relevant industries to participate in platform projects.
If you want more information – please contact me.
Tags: EOn > Fortum > Global Energy Transformation > Jeff Immelt > Mats R Larsson > systems platform projects > Vattenfall
Systems platforms for electric vehicles and biofuels
Posted on | June 19, 2011 | No Comments
There is a need for intelligent, scalable and competitive systems solutions for electric vehicles and biofuels. I have previously written about www.betterplace.com. There are a few more globally, for instance, www.e-laad.nl.
However, the rate of investment in renewable energy infrastructure is ridiculously low. We have the peak in oil production behind us and we rapidly need large volumes of renewable fuels.
Peak Oil Consequences are Generally Underestimated
Posted on | May 21, 2011 | No Comments
Most of the experts who discuss Peak Oil are technology or sustainability experts. They tend to view Peak Oil as a gradual decline in our ability to transport, which will lead to a gradual decline in economic circumstances.
Investors, however, look five to ten years ahead in their estimates and react to their forecasts NOW. That’s why economic downturns happen so rapidly and unexpectedly when many investors become aware of a new scenario. A German agency has written a report that seems reaistic: http://tinyurl.com/3j4gq7r
Too Bad We Cannot All Agree
Posted on | April 29, 2011 | No Comments
There seems to be a consensus among sustainability experts, politicians, economists, and the general public that the measures that are taken in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent by 2020 are sufficient also to meet the needs created by Peak Oil. Even Peak Oil alarmists, who foresee dire consequences as the oil supply starts to substantially decline, seem reluctant to prescribe large scale systematic activities to develop national strategies and supranational cooperation in order to implement renewable fuel systems and reduce our dependence on oil.
No need to upset people by urging governments and decision makers to invest heavily in large scale systems change, just because of some trivial problem called Peak Oil!
Well, I respectfully disagree. There is every reason at this point in time to inform about the consequences of the global peak in oil production, and the measures we, as a society, will need to take in order to mitigate those consequences. Too bad I cannot agree that the current optimism is warranted. National strategies for energy systems transformation, and large scale implementation of renewable fuels systems will turn out to be necessary in order for us to be able to continue our current life styles. And we cannot wait any longer to start this transformation.
Tags: Better place > Global Energy Transformation > Mats R Larsson > renewable fuels systems
Analyzing the Trajectory
Posted on | April 10, 2011 | No Comments
A number of people, not only at the International Energy Agency and ASPO, analyze the awe-inspiring trajectory of global oil production. Declining production volumes could be compared to a comet that is going to strike the aspect of global civilization that is most vulnerable – the global economy. Below is a recent example that indicates that some oil producing countries, as might be expected, are doing better than IEA forecasts, and some are producing less than expected.
http://www.businessinsider.com/theres-a-new-number-one-in-world-oil-production-2011-4
Few people have started to approach the issue from the logical perspective of what we can do to reduce the impact. We need to start to develop and implement large scale systems based on renewable fuels or electricity, similar to the electric vehicle systems that Better Place is now building up on a national scale in Denmark and Israel. Large companies in various industries need to participate in this effort.
This lack of interest in the types of mitigation activities we need to engage in on a large scale in the next few years may have a number of reasons. The people who analyze peak oil or various sustainability issues may not be interested in or understand technology development and large scale implementation of new technologies, or the financing and business strategy issues that need to be dealt with in order to succeed. Few people realize that very large advances can be made in a short period of time through planned and managed programs. Most probably we need to combine market driven financing with government sponsored development and implementation programs.
As already mentioned, few experts have yet come as far in their argumentation as to advocate large scale transformation programs. Yet, many people are fascinated by the trajectory of the “comet” that is going to hit us in the not-too-distant future.
Large Scale Systems Needed
Posted on | April 9, 2011 | No Comments
Global Energy Transformation will require large scale systems that make it easy for the customer to adopt electric vehicles or biofuel cars, and that make it possible for transportation companies to travel across continents without problems.
The development of these large scale systems will demand large investments, and the participation from companies that we don’t primarily see as companies that are active in transportation, vehicles, fuels or other sectors directly connected to energy transformation.
For example, when we develop and implement renewable fuels systems on a large scale, there will be a need for advanced ICT technology, and companies like Ericsson and IBM will be the providers of these intelligent traffic systems and solutions. This is especially true for the large scale implementation of electric vehicles. Consider a situation where 100 000 people own an electric car and they all plug it in to be charged when they come home from work. If all the cars start to charge their batteries at this point there will be an overload on the grids. If there is an intelligent interface between the grid and the electric car system, on the other hand, that phases the charging of different vehicles during the night so that all vehicles can be used for short trips in the evening, but the bulk of charging is done in the middle of the night when the pressure on the grid is low, we will be able to use power that are currently lost. This is only one example of an intelligent application that will become needed as we implement electric car systems on a large scale.
In the future, as more wind power is added to the mix of technologies, there will be excess power as the wind blows during the night, which needs to be stored for use at daytime. A large fleet of electric vehicles will represent a storage resource for this excess power, but intelligent systems will become necessary in order to manage the systems and get optimal efficiency out of them.
This is only one example of a type of business and systems development that will become necessary as we implement renewable fuels systems on a large scale.
We not only need experts who develop electric vehicles and wind power. We need competence and resources in other systems areas as well, such as smart grids, vehicle monitoring, battery charging, development of business models and company structures in these new areas, sales, services etc etc etc.
Tags: business models > electric vehicles > Ericsson > IBM > Mats R Larsson > smart grids
Low probablity
Posted on | April 3, 2011 | No Comments
It is about as probable that a UFO will land on the White House lawn and give us a blue-print of the energy systems of the future, as it is that the market will be able to drive large scale energy transformation with speed and precision.
Planned and managed transformation programs will become necessary in order to run Global Energy Transformation.
Tags: Better place > Global Energy Transformation > organizational learning > President Obama
