No, neither carbon emissions, nor a major oil spill is likely to be enough.

The fact that will eventually do the job is the global peak in oil production and the following reduction in the oil supply that will make it increasingly difficult to run the global economy in the way that it is now configured with global supply chains. This will cause increasing oil prices and over time there will be shortfalls in the oil supply that will force countries to rapidly embark on policies to reduce the dependence on oil.

This, however, will not be a fast and easy route to oil independence. There is no silver bullet. The measures have to include a combination of development programs for renewable fuels and programs to reduce the need for oil by behavior change and changes in the structure of supply chains and other large scale systems of the economy.

We will have to find the most effective ways of reducing our dependence that will give the biggest bang for the buck.

Even if we do not have large scale programs yet, the people who understand this have to start developing the methods and principles to do this, so that we as a society can “hit the ground running,” when politicians finally get their act together and make the necessary decisions.

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Yes, by now we know about the problems and we know a number of potential solutions. The status of twelve different renewable energy technologies are described in the following article from COP 15.

http://en.cop-15.org/news/view+news?newsid=1590

Yes, there are obviously at least 12 renewable energy technologies that we may use in order to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.

The article correctly argues that there are two main concerns that create a need for energy systems transformation – energy supply issues and climate change, but does it say anything about the time frame, the need to prioritize the most promising technologies, or the need to manage resources in such a way that we get the most bang for the buck? Does it say anything about the need to organize and manage a transformation program, or, if the author does not believe that this is the solution, does it explain how the market or some other “force” will be able to develop a solution for us? No!

There are two different ways that a large scale program may come about:

1. The insight that we need to run a rapid and cost effective change program will gradually drive a process of self-organization in society, in which decision makers gradually align structures toward the goal of energy systems transformation, complementing the current focuses on cost effectiveness and time.
2. A number of high level decision makers may take rapid initiatives towards large scale initiatives in Global Energy Transformatin programs. Such programs need to involve analysis of the options, strategy development, planning and managed change.

At present we have too little knowledge in the way of analysis of options, strategies for the transformation, planning of activities and managed change. We have no structures for this, and most organizations in business and the public sector are geared towards the promotion of cost effectiveness and time compression through traditional means.

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December 13, 2009 CONTACT: M.J. Szimanski
Washington, DC
202.560.7516
mike@buzzbinder.com

Mats R. Larsson
Höör, Sweden
0046-733-552411
mats@getinstitute.com

Mats R. Larsson, Global Energy Transformation Institute (GETI) Founder, Releases Latest Book:

“Overcoming Overuse:
Energy Transformation for a World Gone Fad”

Washington, DC – Mats R. Larsson, President and Founder of the Global Energy Transformation Institute (GETI) in Höör, Sweden (www.getinstitute.com), announced today the publication of his latest book: “Overcoming Overuse: Energy Transformation for a World Gone Fad.”

In addition to further explaining the importance of Global Energy transformation, “Overcoming Overuse” offers a lighter and often entertaining interpretation of many of the points Larsson covered in his previous book “Global Energy Transformation: Four Necessary Steps to Make Clean Energy the Next Success Story.” The current book is intentionally briefer in length and is intended to target those interested in global transformation issues but who may find it more realistic to commit to an abridged version of the topic by this author. The book was written with Mike Szimanski and as available through the GETI website at www.GETInstitute.com or http://www.lulu.com/content/paperback-book/overcoming-overuse-energy-transformation-for-a-world-gone-fad/7972188.
According to author Mats R. Larsson, “’Global Energy Transformation’ seems to be hitting the mark with those who understand the breadth and scope of the energy problems we’re facing, but we wanted to reach another level of audience. With “Overcoming Overuse: Energy Transformation in a World Gone Fad,” we are reaching the good-intentioned, mainstream readers who may be stuck in a rut feeling that monitoring their carbon footprints, recycling or responding correctly to “paper or plastic?” at the grocery store alone are not going to solve our energy problems.
“Global Energy Transformation: Four Necessary Steps to Make Clean Energy the Next Success Story” covers highly contemporary and controversial issues related to global energy production and consumption including Peak Oil, climate change, sustainable economic growth and possible changes to large scale energy related systems, such as transportation and industrial processes.
Among other issues, the Global Energy Transformation Institute addresses:
- Analysis of transformation and change management needs in energy related areas.
- Strategy development for society and for corporations in the face of reduced oil supply.
- Planning of transformation projects and change management activities.
- Project management and management of change efforts.
The Global Energy Transformation Institute was founded to familiarize global decision makers and other interested parties on a comprehensive vision of the situation, proposed solutions and to initiate a dialogue and to support the necessary preparations for large-scale transformation of energy systems to renewable fuels and reduced demand and in the implementation of strategies and plans to this effect. GETI endeavors to work with the development of strategies for energy systems transformation on a corporate, national and transnational scale.
Mats R. Larsson and the Global Energy Transformation Institute are available for public speaking presentations and similar project support worldwide.
For further information, go to www.GETInstitute.com.
# # #
http://www.briefingwire.com/pr/mats-r.-larsson-global-energy-transformation-institute-geti-founder-releases-latest-book

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In an article in today’s issue of The New York Times, environmentalist, scientist, and best-selling author of “Guns, Germs and Steel” and “Collapse”, Jared Diamond argues that many companies do much more for the environment and run much more environmentally friendly operations than most environmentalists believe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/06/opinion/06diamond.html?hp

This is clearly an important argument.

Business needs to contribute to large scale energy transformation. Due to Peak Oil, and Climate Change, we need to rapidly and dramatically reduce our use of fossil fuels and energy altogether. Not doing this is no longer an option, because continued affluence will require a continuous supply of energy to feed 6.5 billion people, and provide work and other necessities for them.

We still need to invest huge sums of money and other resources in the large scale transformation of energy related systems. Jared Diamond cites the ambition by Wal Mart to double the fuel efficiency of its truck fleet. This brings us hope that we will be able to manage the large scale energy systems transformation that will become necessary.

Most companies are smaller than Wal Mart, and also less profitable. They have a much more limited impact on their energy consumption than Wal Mart has.

There will be a need of large scale transformation programs, where governments and business (large and small) co-operate in order to succeed with the transformation. There will be a need for standardization, high level project management to make sure that all necessary aspects of the transformation programs are taken managed towards high level goals.

As Al Gore points out in his recent book “Our Choice”, President Obama, and the United States, need to take the lead in the energy transformation.

Large companies like General Electric, Volvo, and Wal Mart, are blazing the path forward. Now governments needs to get their act together and start the high level programs that develop the technologies, products and systems that we cannot expect business to develop based on market mechanisms. In order to know what those are, governments need to analyze the transformation needs and opportunities and find the gaps that market based action will not fill.

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Al Gore also touches upon the subject of Peak Oil and the impending price increases for petroleum products, but he does not analyze the implications of Peak Oil for our need to reduce our use of fossil fuels. A reduced supply of oil will reduce the use of oil, and there are also problems related to increasing the use of other fossil fuels, such as coal and natural gas, as Richard Heinberg and Julian Darley have argued.
“Our Choice” is mainly about technology, and it focuses on the opportunities. In it Al Gore mentions that it will, in many ways, be a difficult and demanding process to transform energy systems on a large scale, but he does not go into the forms of management, the organization, or the financing opportunities in any detail.
Throughout the book he is curiously quiet about the meaning of the word “plan” that is spelled out in the subtitle.

He makes it clear that the government of the United States has a role in the transformation, and he expresses hope that the President, Barack Obama, in 2009, will take strong action to solve the climate crisis. Al Gore also describes the role that “Information” can play in the transformation, but he does not say anything of the greater managerial context that will become necessary in order for the suggested uses of information to make sense.

To summarize, Al Gore focuses on the good news. Yes, it is possible to transform energy systems on a large scale, yes, there are promising new technologies, yes, we need to change the ways that we think about energy and the ways that we use it. “Our Choice” is less explicit on the exact nature of the management challenge, the roles that need to be played by the government, business leaders, and the need of billions in investment into research, technology development and implementation. As only one example we may look at “The Nuclear Option”, which is seems to be increasingly favored even by environmentalists. In his book “Is War Necessary for Economic Growth”, the late Professor Vernon W. Ruttan of University of Minnesota argues that nuclear technology had probably not been developed at all in the absence of large scale and long term government investment in technology development. While new generations of nuclear fission technology, and nuclear fusion, are options for the future, very large research and implementation programs will become necessary in order to develop those. In addition, it takes ten years to build a new nuclear power plant, using the technologies that are already available to us, and we may need very many new plants in the near future.
Al Gore leaves the task of analyzing the management challenges of energy systems transformation to other authors. Fortunately, “Global Energy Transformation” is already available to complement “Our Choice” in this respect. In the very near future a new book will be available from Global Energy Transformation Institute, which describes the softer leadership skills that the leaders in the challenge need to possess, in order to drive transformation in our society of highly specialized individuals and organizations. “Our Choice” needs to be read by many, but we must not stop here and think that Al Gore presents the solution, or a plan. In that sense “Our Choice” is not the last word on the issue of planning in the energy transformation process. Neither is it a book about planning and management of this process. Nonetheless, it is a very important book about the technology solutions that are available to us, and some of the obstacles to change that our society presents.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/23/AR2009112303966.html?hpid=topnews

This is a really interesting sign of progress. In “Global Energy Transformation” I argue in favor of nuclear power, as an expandable energy source. The use of nuclear power is preferable to the alternatives, climate change, and also to declining global energy supplies.

We have grown dependent on increasing amounts of energy in order to keep the global economy working and expanding, and we will need a large scale planned and managed program in order to reduce this dependence. Developing new renewable energy sources will also require planned and managed programs. While we are waiting for this to happen, we need to utilise the technologies that are available to us and expand them.

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In a statement of the 14th of November the IEA states that governments need to reduce carbon emissions faster than have previously been planned. The recommendation is reminiscent of the message of “Global Energy Transformation.”:

“Putting the world on to a 450 ppm trajectory requires a deep and rapid transformation of the way we produce and consume energy, and a similar transformation of industrial processes and agricultural and forestry practices,” the IEA said. “Innovation would be required across all sectors.”

The complete article from The National can be read using the link below:

http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091114/BUSINESS/711149921/1005

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As I said, I cannot wait until I get my hands on this new book. Even though I only have a vague idea about the content, it sure looks promising!!!

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