Global Energy Transformation Institute (GETI) » Peak Oil

Creating New Business Sectors and Sectors of Society

Mats — Sun, 16 Oct 2011 07:53:45 +0000

In most cases in the past sustainability has been driven by existing companies and organizations. Gradually a new research and consulting sector has developed that supplies knowledge and services, but the introduction of lower emission vehicles, unleaded fuel and white-goods free of freon have not created the need for large numbers of new companies or whole business sectors, or, for that matter, sectors of society.

In the case of renewable fuels and electric cars this situation will change. We use, on a global scale, 86 million barrels of oil every day and the systems and business challenges, as well as the technical challenges of replacing a large share of this volume by renewable fuels and electric vehicles will demand levels of transformation that we have not experienced up until now.

For instance, garbage and biological waste are resources that we will need to use much more efficiently than we do at present. People from countries all over the world visit Sweden and other European countries and are told about our well organized systems of waste management, where waste is sorted into different fractions and recycled or burned to produce heat that is distributed to companies and households via district heating systems. Many people from the large number of companies that lack such systems think that the use of waste to heat buildings is a very good idea, but often the question is asked: “Where do you get the garbage?” The systems we have developed for waste management are very intricate and in countries where we have them we think of them as a natural part of modern society. In countries where they don’t have them they will need to build these systems from the ground up, creating new companies and entire sectors of society and the economy in the process. Of course the waste management companies will need suppliers of vehicles, district heating equipment and other necessities. Some of these things, at least initially will have to be imported, but some need to be supplied locally.

In the same way the large scale production and use of biogas will require an entirely new business sector that produces huge volumes of biogas every year. In no country there is such a system in existence. In the small country of Sweden with 9 million people we use 200 terrawatthours of oil every year for transportation. We produce 1.5 TWh of biogas, and most of this is used for district heating. In order to dramatically increase the volumes of biogas for transportation we would need huge production plants for biogas that produce 300 to 500 GWh per year. Even with this size of plants we would need 400 units of 500 GWh plants to replace oil in the transportation sector. In the entire Swedish agricultural sector there is an estimated 34 TWh of biological waste available that can be used for biogas production. In order to introduce biogas on a large scale we need a number of new types of businesses that together will make up an entirely new biogas sector in society and the economy:

- Collection of biomass, including the technologies that are necessary to harvest biomass at farms, sea and in the forest on a large scale.
- Transportation of biomass to plants.
- Transportation of waste from biogas production back to farms as fertilizer.
- A closely knit distribution network for biogas from production to customers.
- Suppliers of technology and other necessities to all these sectors.

In the same way, in the electric vehicle sector we will need large numbers of entirely new companies, to some extent similar to the mobile phone industry of today. Among the new companies needed we will find electric vehicle systems operators, hardware and software suppliers to such systems (exist already to a large extent, but are at present focused on ICT).

These sectors will gradually grow in numbers and volumes, and we need to start build them by investing large amounts of money in creating this growth. With increasing numbers of people who are becoming aware of the need to implement renewable fuels on a large scale to replace oil we should start to debate how this can be done in the most efficient way.

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Everybody Needs to Do More Than What Is Reasonable

Mats — Sun, 28 Aug 2011 10:12:34 +0000

We cannot just sit and wait for the consequences of Peak Oil to come upon us. We need to prepare strategies and action plans. This will be very difficult to do in a structured way once we are in the midst of a huge recession.

We all need to do more than anyone could reasonably expect an individual to do in order to inform and debate Peak Oil and its consequences. Nobody else will do it! The world needs YOUR voice in this.

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Peak Oil Consequences are Generally Underestimated

Mats — Sat, 21 May 2011 09:19:04 +0000

Most of the experts who discuss Peak Oil are technology or sustainability experts. They tend to view Peak Oil as a gradual decline in our ability to transport, which will lead to a gradual decline in economic circumstances.

Investors, however, look five to ten years ahead in their estimates and react to their forecasts NOW. That’s why economic downturns happen so rapidly and unexpectedly when many investors become aware of a new scenario. A German agency has written a report that seems reaistic: http://tinyurl.com/3j4gq7r

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Analyzing the Trajectory

Mats — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 12:17:52 +0000

A number of people, not only at the International Energy Agency and ASPO, analyze the awe-inspiring trajectory of global oil production. Declining production volumes could be compared to a comet that is going to strike the aspect of global civilization that is most vulnerable – the global economy. Below is a recent example that indicates that some oil producing countries, as might be expected, are doing better than IEA forecasts, and some are producing less than expected.

http://www.businessinsider.com/theres-a-new-number-one-in-world-oil-production-2011-4

Few people have started to approach the issue from the logical perspective of what we can do to reduce the impact. We need to start to develop and implement large scale systems based on renewable fuels or electricity, similar to the electric vehicle systems that Better Place is now building up on a national scale in Denmark and Israel. Large companies in various industries need to participate in this effort.

This lack of interest in the types of mitigation activities we need to engage in on a large scale in the next few years may have a number of reasons. The people who analyze peak oil or various sustainability issues may not be interested in or understand technology development and large scale implementation of new technologies, or the financing and business strategy issues that need to be dealt with in order to succeed. Few people realize that very large advances can be made in a short period of time through planned and managed programs. Most probably we need to combine market driven financing with government sponsored development and implementation programs.

As already mentioned, few experts have yet come as far in their argumentation as to advocate large scale transformation programs. Yet, many people are fascinated by the trajectory of the “comet” that is going to hit us in the not-too-distant future.

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Global Energy Denial

Mats — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 08:18:13 +0000

In the past few years the insight has arisen among an increasing number of energy experts that we are facing a problem with energy supply that had not previously been anticipated. This regards the issue of Peak Oil and the fact that we are not going to easily and inexpensively have access to large volumes of oil in the future. Instead, supply volumes will decline, and we will need to save energy in a structured manner.

Still, for various reasons, the world is in denial about this. Sustainability experts have for many years argued that we need to reduce our use of fossil fuels and the global community via the UN, EU, and other organizations have embarked on projects to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by 20% by 2020. With Peak Oil this rate of reduction will be inadequate, and the threats that Peak Oil poses are entirely different from those posed by climate change.

This is difficult to accept for most of us and we need to think deep and hard to come up with the solutions for the pressing needs posed by Peak Oil.

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Saudi Oil Reserves Overstated

Mats — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 06:10:14 +0000

Saudi Arabia, the country that produces some eight to nine per cent of global oil production with more than eight million barrels, and has been hoped to be able to increase production to off-set reductions in the production of other countries, has overstated its reserves.

http://www.newser.com/story/111638/peak-oil-looms-saudi-supply-overstated.html

This makes Global Energy Transformation an even more pressing need.

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The Price Will Not Be the Main Problem

Mats — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 10:43:42 +0000

Many experts believe that a decrease in the oil supply will lead to higher prices, and that this will immediately reduce demand for oil, at little significant cost to the economy. A higher energy price will increase investments in renewable fuel technologies, which will at short notice increase the volumes of renewable fuels that are available and used.

The biggest problem following the global peak in oil production will be the reduced supply, which will not over the short term be replaced by renewable fuels.

We are dependent on increasing volumes of energy, and especially of oil to fuel the global economy. With decreasing volumes the economy will find it increasingly difficult to grow.

It will take years, and in many cases decades, for renewable fuel technologies to be developed and implemented on a large scale. It takes ten years to build new nuclear plants and the median life time for a car is seventeen years and the same number for a heavy truck is twenty-seven years.

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New book: "Overcoming Overuse: Energy Transformation for a World Gone Fad"

Mats — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 21:05:50 +0000

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

December 13, 2009 CONTACT: M.J. Szimanski
Washington, DC
202.560.7516
mike@buzzbinder.com

Mats R. Larsson
Höör, Sweden
0046-733-552411
mats@getinstitute.com

Mats R. Larsson, Global Energy Transformation Institute (GETI) Founder, Releases Latest Book:

“Overcoming Overuse:
Energy Transformation for a World Gone Fad”

Washington, DC – Mats R. Larsson, President and Founder of the Global Energy Transformation Institute (GETI) in Höör, Sweden (www.getinstitute.com), announced today the publication of his latest book: “Overcoming Overuse: Energy Transformation for a World Gone Fad.”

In addition to further explaining the importance of Global Energy transformation, “Overcoming Overuse” offers a lighter and often entertaining interpretation of many of the points Larsson covered in his previous book “Global Energy Transformation: Four Necessary Steps to Make Clean Energy the Next Success Story.” The current book is intentionally briefer in length and is intended to target those interested in global transformation issues but who may find it more realistic to commit to an abridged version of the topic by this author. The book was written with Mike Szimanski and as available through the GETI website at www.GETInstitute.com or http://www.lulu.com/content/paperback-book/overcoming-overuse-energy-transformation-for-a-world-gone-fad/7972188.
According to author Mats R. Larsson, “’Global Energy Transformation’ seems to be hitting the mark with those who understand the breadth and scope of the energy problems we’re facing, but we wanted to reach another level of audience. With “Overcoming Overuse: Energy Transformation in a World Gone Fad,” we are reaching the good-intentioned, mainstream readers who may be stuck in a rut feeling that monitoring their carbon footprints, recycling or responding correctly to “paper or plastic?” at the grocery store alone are not going to solve our energy problems.
“Global Energy Transformation: Four Necessary Steps to Make Clean Energy the Next Success Story” covers highly contemporary and controversial issues related to global energy production and consumption including Peak Oil, climate change, sustainable economic growth and possible changes to large scale energy related systems, such as transportation and industrial processes.
Among other issues, the Global Energy Transformation Institute addresses:
- Analysis of transformation and change management needs in energy related areas.
- Strategy development for society and for corporations in the face of reduced oil supply.
- Planning of transformation projects and change management activities.
- Project management and management of change efforts.
The Global Energy Transformation Institute was founded to familiarize global decision makers and other interested parties on a comprehensive vision of the situation, proposed solutions and to initiate a dialogue and to support the necessary preparations for large-scale transformation of energy systems to renewable fuels and reduced demand and in the implementation of strategies and plans to this effect. GETI endeavors to work with the development of strategies for energy systems transformation on a corporate, national and transnational scale.
Mats R. Larsson and the Global Energy Transformation Institute are available for public speaking presentations and similar project support worldwide.
For further information, go to www.GETInstitute.com.
# # #
http://www.briefingwire.com/pr/mats-r.-larsson-global-energy-transformation-institute-geti-founder-releases-latest-book

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An affordable truth – Paul Krugman

Mats — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 11:15:44 +0000

In a column in The New York Times, op-ed columnist and Nobel Prize Winner Paul Krugman argues that many opportunities to reduce energy consumption and lower emissions of CO2 come at a relatively low cost. One example in point is additional insulation of houses.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/07/opinion/07krugman.html

Yes, this is true. However, a program to improve the insulation of houses in any country needs to involve large scale project management, in order to communicate the contents of the program, administrate information activities and other incentives. Without subsidies, the amount of information and persuasion needs to be higher than in the opposite case.

Regardless of the large scale energy transformation activities that we go for, costly, or more affordable, a program needs to be run as a managed transformation program, the subject of the book “Global Energy Transformation”.

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Big business is an important resource, says Jared Diamond

Mats — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 10:43:34 +0000

An increasing number of environmentalists seem to re-evaluate some of their core views about how sustainability will be achieved. In a previous posting I referred an article in the Washington Post, saying that environmentalists increasingly view nuclear power as one of the solutions that will help us produce clean energy in the future.

In an article in today’s issue of The New York Times, environmentalist, scientist, and best-selling author of “Guns, Germs and Steel” and “Collapse”, Jared Diamond argues that many companies do much more for the environment and run much more environmentally friendly operations than most environmentalists believe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/06/opinion/06diamond.html?hp

This is clearly an important argument.

Business needs to contribute to large scale energy transformation. Due to Peak Oil, and Climate Change, we need to rapidly and dramatically reduce our use of fossil fuels and energy altogether. Not doing this is no longer an option, because continued affluence will require a continuous supply of energy to feed 6.5 billion people, and provide work and other necessities for them.

We still need to invest huge sums of money and other resources in the large scale transformation of energy related systems. Jared Diamond cites the ambition by Wal Mart to double the fuel efficiency of its truck fleet. This brings us hope that we will be able to manage the large scale energy systems transformation that will become necessary.

Most companies are smaller than Wal Mart, and also less profitable. They have a much more limited impact on their energy consumption than Wal Mart has.

There will be a need of large scale transformation programs, where governments and business (large and small) co-operate in order to succeed with the transformation. There will be a need for standardization, high level project management to make sure that all necessary aspects of the transformation programs are taken managed towards high level goals.

As Al Gore points out in his recent book “Our Choice”, President Obama, and the United States, need to take the lead in the energy transformation.

Large companies like General Electric, Volvo, and Wal Mart, are blazing the path forward. Now governments needs to get their act together and start the high level programs that develop the technologies, products and systems that we cannot expect business to develop based on market mechanisms. In order to know what those are, governments need to analyze the transformation needs and opportunities and find the gaps that market based action will not fill.

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