Even if this is not yet the official explanation of the development in the global financial markets, this is likely to become an increasing factor behind future re-evaluations in stock markets and other financial markets.

When investors make these calculations they are bound to realize that the global community is far behind in developing the necessary volumes of renewable energy.

We need strategies, plans, and national and international change programs in order to cope with the situation that is now evolving.

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Yes, by now we know about the problems and we know a number of potential solutions. The status of twelve different renewable energy technologies are described in the following article from COP 15.

http://en.cop-15.org/news/view+news?newsid=1590

Yes, there are obviously at least 12 renewable energy technologies that we may use in order to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.

The article correctly argues that there are two main concerns that create a need for energy systems transformation – energy supply issues and climate change, but does it say anything about the time frame, the need to prioritize the most promising technologies, or the need to manage resources in such a way that we get the most bang for the buck? Does it say anything about the need to organize and manage a transformation program, or, if the author does not believe that this is the solution, does it explain how the market or some other “force” will be able to develop a solution for us? No!

There are two different ways that a large scale program may come about:

1. The insight that we need to run a rapid and cost effective change program will gradually drive a process of self-organization in society, in which decision makers gradually align structures toward the goal of energy systems transformation, complementing the current focuses on cost effectiveness and time.
2. A number of high level decision makers may take rapid initiatives towards large scale initiatives in Global Energy Transformatin programs. Such programs need to involve analysis of the options, strategy development, planning and managed change.

At present we have too little knowledge in the way of analysis of options, strategies for the transformation, planning of activities and managed change. We have no structures for this, and most organizations in business and the public sector are geared towards the promotion of cost effectiveness and time compression through traditional means.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/23/AR2009112303966.html?hpid=topnews

This is a really interesting sign of progress. In “Global Energy Transformation” I argue in favor of nuclear power, as an expandable energy source. The use of nuclear power is preferable to the alternatives, climate change, and also to declining global energy supplies.

We have grown dependent on increasing amounts of energy in order to keep the global economy working and expanding, and we will need a large scale planned and managed program in order to reduce this dependence. Developing new renewable energy sources will also require planned and managed programs. While we are waiting for this to happen, we need to utilise the technologies that are available to us and expand them.

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In a statement of the 14th of November the IEA states that governments need to reduce carbon emissions faster than have previously been planned. The recommendation is reminiscent of the message of “Global Energy Transformation.”:

“Putting the world on to a 450 ppm trajectory requires a deep and rapid transformation of the way we produce and consume energy, and a similar transformation of industrial processes and agricultural and forestry practices,” the IEA said. “Innovation would be required across all sectors.”

The complete article from The National can be read using the link below:

http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091114/BUSINESS/711149921/1005

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As I said, I cannot wait until I get my hands on this new book. Even though I only have a vague idea about the content, it sure looks promising!!!

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This will not be a problem during “business-as-usual”. Increasing specialization makes sense during periods of economic growth and increasing prosperity. Specialization contributes to both.

When we face problems in the economy, or in society as a whole, we need to take a look at the big picture, evaluate how things fit together, and come up with new ideas for solutions. The expression that a problem can not be solved between the system of ideas that created it has, in another wording, been attributed to Albert Einstein.

With an increasing number of experts, the task of finding new routes forward becomes more difficult and resource consuming.

When I started to work as a management consultant, in 1990, most of my collegues in the international management consulting company SIAR-Bossard were generalists. Today, a large share of the consultants at large management consulting firms are specialists, focusing on a narrow set of management issues. In this context these people need to be part of a large project, involving many different specialists, in order to create a strategy, change management plan or business plan.

This situation also makes the job of informing people about the need to transform energy systems on a large scale more difficult. Most people don’t see what they can do to help, not even in a small way, when the problem is formulated as a relatively general and broad issue. Most people need detailed analyses and explanations of how the problem will affect them, and what they, with their particular competence, can do to help with the solution.

This is something that we need to deal with in the near future. In the new book, which will be released in early December, this problem is discussed and the implications are analyzed. It is all presented in a form that will be easy for the reader to understand and digest.

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The current story was published in The Financial Times, which also offered an opportunity to ask a question about the future oil supply to the chief economist of the IEA, Fatih Birol.

http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/

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Later this year another book will be published, which is now being written. This deals with some of the softer concepts surrounding “leadership” and “learning and re-learning” on the level of society.

The society that we live in today, with its high level of specialization, presents a transformation challenge that is bigger than that of transformations in earlier times. Changing existing systems in society is also different from building entirely new technologies and structures, such as in the case of the Apollo Program. This is what the new book is all about. Its title has not yet been decided.

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Myth #1: Global Oil production will peak in thirty years time or later.

Why this is a myth: Nobody knows exactly when global oil production will peak, but it will probably happen within the next decade, possibly in the next few years, or it may already have happened. Since the 1960′s oil companies have made fewer and fewer discoveries, and today they find only one third the amount of oil that we use every year. This is regardless of the fact that prices are increasing. The largest discoveries were made in the 1960′s when oil was very cheap, and they have not risen due to increasing prices.

Myth #2: If oil becomes scarce oil prices will increase, but we can maintain economic growth.

Why this is a myth: In order to maintain and increase economic activity on a global scale we depend on increasing volumes of energy, primarily oil. With less oil we will not be able to produce and transport goods and people around the globe. For transportation we don’t have a readily available alternative to oil. We need to rapidly develop renewable fuels, large scale production and distribution systems for those.

Myth #3: When oil prices increase investors and companies will have the incentives to develop renewables.

Why this is a myth: It takes decades to develop new technologies and implement them on a large scale. In order to sustain a high level of development and investments in new technology over long periods of time we need strong economic growth. After Peak Oil economic growth will probably turn into decline, and it will become increasingly difficult to invest large amounts of money in the development and implementation of renewables.

Myth #4: The market will make sure that economic growth will continue after Peak Oil.

Why this is a myth: The only thing the market does is to determine a price of different commodities and factors of production at certain levels of supply and demand. If demand for oil exceeds supply, prices will increase. The market will not make sure that everyone who demand oil will get a share. Production activity performed by the financially weak will suffer as oil prices increase and it will not easily be replaced by new economic activity.

Myth #5: We will have ample time to develop and implement renewable energy sources when oil prices start to increase.

Why this is a myth: After Peak Oil the available volumes of oil will decrease. This will put strain on the economy, which will start to lean towards recession. It will become increasingly difficult to stimulate economic growth. At this point the situation will get worse until we manage to develop and implement renewable energy sources on a large scale. This will be difficult at this point, given the aspects described above.

Myth #6: Oil importing countries will always be able to buy oil in world markets.

Why this is a myth: As production volumes decline, oil producing countries will need to use an increasing share of its oil for its own needs. The volumes available for export will decline. Oil importing countries will compete over increasingly small export volumes.

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