Global Energy Transformation Institute (GETI)

The market works small wonders

Posted on | October 5, 2009 | No Comments

Saturday, June 13, 2009 by Mats Larsson
The market works small wonders, at best.
In order to facilitate large scale transformation of energy systems with precision, we need plans.
We may take the example of wave power. There are now several types of wave power generators in development http://home.clara.net/darvill/altenerg/wave.htm that compete with each other. There are probably hundreds of companies that invest in this development. We may be impressed by the activity and the inventiveness that these efforts show. Without a free market we would never have had this degree of inventiveness. Correct!
However, if we look at the time line from here until such time that wave power will generate 1% of the electricity of any large country, or 10%, which is even further into the future, we cannot rely on the market forces alone. If we do we may have to wait 15-20 years until wave power supplies 1% of the electricity of any large country. With planned projects, in which we (a number of countries together or one country, maybe a large region in case investment need is moderate) focus on one or a small number of alternative technologies and companies, we will most probably be able to halve the time to large scale implementation. We will know how much time we can save if we care to analyze the issue.
We know that in the cases such as the present too many inventors and small companies try their luck in a new and promising field. We also know that this is likely to create a bubble, sometimes easily observed, sometimes not so easy to observe, because it may be related to a smaller industry or a few industries.
Regardless of the size of the bubble, society will more rapidly enjoy the fruits of the best ideas and the best efforts to build strong companies. We could evaluate them now, based on a number of criteria that we could agree upon.
In the case of the Apollo project, NASA had a blueprint for the key parts of the space craft and other necessary aspects of the program a year after the famous speech by President Kennedy in May 1961 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Q4g-iINWU. We can do the same in the case of wave power, biofuels for transportation and other necessary developments for the future. We could, in a planned and managed project, make blueprints for the development of a number of key technologies and run focused development and implementation projects to realize their full potential.

The market works small wonders, at best.

In order to facilitate large scale transformation of energy systems with precision, we need plans.

We may take the example of wave power. There are now several types of wave power generators in development http://home.clara.net/darvill/altenerg/wave.htm that compete with each other. There are probably hundreds of companies that invest in this development. We may be impressed by the activity and the inventiveness that these efforts show. Without a free market we would never have had this degree of inventiveness. Correct!

However, if we look at the time line from here until such time that wave power will generate 1% of the electricity of any large country, or 10%, which is even further into the future, we cannot rely on the market forces alone. If we do we may have to wait 15-20 years until wave power supplies 1% of the electricity of any large country. With planned projects, in which we (a number of countries together or one country, maybe a large region in case investment need is moderate) focus on one or a small number of alternative technologies and companies, we will most probably be able to halve the time to large scale implementation. We will know how much time we can save if we care to analyze the issue.

We know that in the cases such as the present too many inventors and small companies try their luck in a new and promising field. We also know that this is likely to create a bubble, sometimes easily observed, sometimes not so easy to observe, because it may be related to a smaller industry or a few industries.

Regardless of the size of the bubble, society will more rapidly enjoy the fruits of the best ideas and the best efforts to build strong companies. We could evaluate them now, based on a number of criteria that we could agree upon.

In the case of the Apollo project, NASA had a blueprint for the key parts of the space craft and other necessary aspects of the program a year after the famous speech by President Kennedy in May 1961 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Q4g-iINWU. We can do the same in the case of wave power, biofuels for transportation and other necessary developments for the future. We could, in a planned and managed project, make blueprints for the development of a number of key technologies and run focused development and implementation projects to realize their full potential.

Saturday, June 13, 2009 by Mats Larsson
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